From 2014 to 2017, Kenya's sugar cane production saw fluctuations, peaking in 2015 at 7.17 million metric tons. However, it sharply declined in 2017 to 4.75 million metric tons. Subsequent years exhibited continued fluctuations, with no significant recovery, culminating in a value of 4.73 million metric tons in 2023. The overall downward trend is evident with a negative CAGR of -2.11% over the last five years (2019-2023).
Year-on-year analysis for the past two years reveals a continuous slight decline, with -2.22% in 2022 and -2.21% in 2023. Forecast data suggest a continuing decline, with a forecasted 5-year compound annual growth rate of -2%, predicting a decrease to 4.17 million metric tons by 2028, indicating a 9.62% drop over the five-year period.
Future trends to watch for include:
- Weather patterns and climate change impacts on sugar cane yield.
- Government policies and support for the agricultural sector.
- Advances in agricultural technology and practices to boost productivity.
- Market dynamics, including domestic and international demand for sugar cane and related products.
