In 2023, the demand for pelagic fish in Kenya stood at 21.43 thousand metric tons, reflecting a 1.76% year-on-year increase. Over the last five years, the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) was 1.84%, indicating steady growth albeit slower compared to some previous years. Historically, the highest year-on-year growth was recorded in 2016 at 12.6%, signifying an outlier period. Actual data from 2014 to 2023 show a fluctuating growth pattern with years like 2020 witnessing a decline of -3.09% due to various economic factors or resource constraints.
Looking forward, demand is expected to grow at a CAGR of 1.38% over the next five years, reaching 23.3 thousand metric tons by 2028, with an overall growth rate of 7.07%. While this suggests continuing positive momentum, the pace of growth may moderate relative to historical levels.
Future trends to watch for include:
- Economic factors affecting consumer purchasing power.
- Potential shifts in dietary preferences and increased awareness of sustainable fishing practices.
- Government regulations and initiatives promoting aquaculture and sustainable fishing.
- Impact of climate change on fish populations and availability.