The turnover of retail merchandise markets in China has exhibited notable fluctuations over the past decade, with significant peaks and troughs observed yearly. In 2023, the turnover stood at 2,066 billion yuan, showing a slight year-on-year growth of 2.17%. The past two years show a mere 2.17% increase in 2023 and an 8.88% rise in 2022, indicating a recovery phase after previous downturns. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the last five years ending in 2023 was approximately 0.22%, illustrating overall stability despite short-term volatility.
Looking forward, the forecast from 2024 to 2028 predicts a mild reduction trend, with a 5-year forecasted CAGR of -0.14% and an anticipated overall decline rate of -0.71%. This suggests a potentially stable but contracting market for retail merchandise turnover within the forecast period.
Future trends to watch for include:
- Technological advancements influencing consumer behavior- Government regulations and policies affecting retail operations- Economic factors such as GDP growth rates and consumer spending power- The evolving competitive landscape within the retail sector, including e-commerce impacts.
