Based on the data, Brazilian wheat demand in 2023 stood at 12.39 million metric tons. Over the last two years, the year-on-year variation has been minimal, showing slight increments of 0.32% from 2022 to 2023 and 0.33% from 2021 to 2022. This indicates a period of relative stability in wheat demand.
Analyzing the past decade, we observe significant fluctuations in demand, with some notable spikes: a 13.94% increase in 2016 and 12.83% in 2018. However, these were balanced by declines, such as -11.08% in 2017 and -4.67% in 2020. The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) for the last five years shows an average decrease of -0.22% per year.
Looking forward to the projected data from 2024 to 2028, we anticipate a modest average growth with a five-year CAGR of 0.26%, culminating in demand reaching 12.6 million metric tons by 2028. This forecasted period shows a growth rate of 1.33%, indicating a cautious but steady upward trend.
Future trends to watch for include changes in domestic agricultural policies, climate conditions impacting wheat production, and shifts in import-export dynamics that could significantly influence demand.
