Key Market Indicators
Canadian tobacco consumption is expected to decline significantly over the next five years. By 2028, only 5.3% of Canadians aged 15 and older are projected to be daily smokers, a notable drop from the 7.7% recorded in 2023. This represents an average annual decrease of roughly 5.9 percentage points. Historical data indicates a consistent downward trend in Canadian demand, with a 7.4-point annual decline since 1969. In tandem with the drop in consumption, Canadian tobacco production is also set to decrease. By 2028, production is forecasted to hit 5,800 metric tons, down from 13,400 metric tons in 2023. This equates to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -13.2%. The trend isn't new; since 1966, Canadian tobacco supply has been falling at an average rate of 8.6% per year. In 2023, Canada ranked 34th in global tobacco production, with South Africa surpassing it with 13,420 metric tons. The leading producers in the world include India, Brazil, and Zimbabwe, holding the second, third, and fourth positions respectively.