Unmanufactured tobacco production in the US is anticipated to decline steadily from 2024, beginning at 155.8 thousand metric tons, to 102.31 thousand metric tons by 2028. There is a consistent decrease, with the volume reducing by 8.84% year-on-year from 2025 to 2028. Over the five-year period from 2024 to 2028, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is approximately -9.98%, indicating a significant contraction in production. It is important to note that in 2023, actual production levels were significantly higher than the forecast for 2024.
Future trends to watch for include changes in consumer preferences, regulatory impacts, and shifts toward alternative crops by farmers, which may further influence the trajectory of unmanufactured tobacco production in the US.
