Forecast: Tobacco Consumption in the UK

The percentage of UK men aged 15-24 who are daily smokers was 22.3% in 2023. Forecasted figures indicate a slight decline to 22% by 2028, reflecting a gradual reduction in smoking incidence among young men over these years. The year-on-year decrease from 2023 to 2024 is 0.4%, stabilizing afterwards with marginal changes. The five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2024 to 2028 is approximately -0.28%, indicating a slow but steady decrease in tobacco consumption in this demographic.

Future trends to monitor include:

  • The impact of policy changes and stricter tobacco regulation enforcement.
  • Shifts in public health campaigns and education efforts aimed at reducing smoking.
  • Growth in alternative nicotine products such as e-cigarettes and their influence on smoking rates.

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