The number of malaria reported confirmed cases in Kenya is forecasted to rise from 4.121 million in 2024 to 4.6693 million by 2028. Comparing data from 2023, where cases stood at approximately 3.98 million, there is a clear upward trend with an increase of around 3.55% between 2023 and 2024. The year-on-year percentage variation from 2024 to 2025 is 3.42%, from 2025 to 2026 is 3.25%, from 2026 to 2027 is 3.08%, and from 2027 to 2028 is 2.93%. The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) over the five-year forecasted period from 2024 to 2028 is approximately 3.30%.
Future trends to watch for include the impact of climate change on malaria transmission, potential advancements in medical treatments and preventive measures, the effectiveness of public health campaigns, and changes in funding for malaria control programs. Additionally, monitoring migration patterns and urbanization rates will be critical as these factors can significantly influence the spread of malaria.
