The forecasted incidence of Malaria in Kenya shows a steady but modest upward trend from 2024 to 2028. In 2023, the actual incidence was recorded at 66.26 cases per thousand persons at risk, marking the baseline for these projections. Year-on-year variations from 2024 to 2028 reveal incremental increases: 0.6% from 2024 to 2025, 0.49% from 2025 to 2026, 0.39% from 2026 to 2027, and 0.31% from 2027 to 2028. Over the five-year forecast period, the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) is approximately 0.53%.
Future trends to watch for include:
- Changes in climate patterns which could affect malaria transmission rates.
- The introduction and scaling-up of malaria intervention strategies, such as vaccine deployment and enhanced vector control measures.
- Potential improvements in healthcare infrastructure that could reduce malaria incidence through better diagnosis and treatment.
- Resistance to current malaria treatments which may influence incidence rates.
