Between 2013 and 2023, the incidence of malaria in Angola has shown a consistent upward trend, increasing from 160.7 cases per thousand persons at risk in 2013 to 259.93 in 2023. The rate of increase, however, has varied year-on-year, from as high as 10.71% in 2020 to as low as 0.86% in 2023. Over the past five years (2018-2023), the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) stood at 3.94%.
Looking forward, forecasts from 2024 to 2028 suggest a continued but slowing growth in malaria incidence, with an average annual growth rate of 0.32% and a total expected increase of 1.6% over this period. This indicates a leveling off in the rate of new cases per thousand persons at risk.
Future trends to watch for include potential impacts from public health interventions, changes in the environment, and socio-economic factors, all of which could influence the trajectory of malaria incidence in Angola. Monitoring these trends will be crucial in assessing the efficacy of ongoing prevention and control measures.
