The incidence of malaria in South Africa has fluctuated significantly over the past decade. From 2013 to 2023, there was considerable volatility, including a notable spike in 2017 followed by a sharp decline. As of 2023, the incidence stood at 1.26 cases per thousand persons at risk.
Year-on-year variations have been extensive, with substantial increases such as the 438.76% rise in 2017 followed by considerable decreases like the -50.23% drop in 2019. This fluctuation indicates an unstable trend in malaria incidence.
The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the last five years (2018-2023) has been -5.43%, reflecting an overall downward trend over the recent half-decade.
Forecasts suggest that from 2024 to 2028, the incidence rate will stabilize around 1.25 cases per thousand persons, with a modest forecasted decline, indicated by a CAGR of -0.15% and a forecast 5-year growth rate of -0.76%.
Future trends to watch for include the potential impacts of public health initiatives, environmental changes, and population movements on malaria incidence. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for accurate forecasting and effective malaria control strategies.
