Based on the given data, malaria cases in South Africa are projected to increase steadily from 2024 to 2028. In 2023, the actual recorded number of malaria cases stood at 22.60 thousand. The year 2024 forecasts an increase to 23.38 thousand cases, marking a 3.5% rise from the previous year. This upward trend continues with 24.23 thousand cases in 2025 (a 3.63% rise), 25.07 thousand cases in 2026 (a 3.47% rise), 25.89 thousand cases in 2027 (a 3.27% rise), and 26.70 thousand cases in 2028 (a 3.13% rise).
From 2023 to 2028, the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) is approximately 3.4%. This indicates a consistent annual increase in malaria cases over the forecast period.
Future trends to watch for include possible impacts of new malaria prevention measures, changes in climate conditions affecting mosquito habitats, and potential improvements in healthcare access and malaria treatment protocols that could influence the incidence rates.
