Forecast: Hard Cheese Production in the UK

The production of hard cheese in the UK experienced significant growth from 2013, where it stood at 214.9 thousand metric tons, reaching 398.53 thousand metric tons in 2023. Over the years, there were considerable year-on-year fluctuations with high growth periods, particularly between 2014 and 2016, and some declines, such as in 2019 and 2020. From 2021 to 2023, the production showed steady growth, culminating in an average annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.03% over the last five years. Forecast projections for 2024 onwards predict continued growth, with the CAGR for the next five years expected to be around 1.8%, resulting in a total growth rate of 9.35% by 2028.

Future trends to watch for:

  • Continued steady growth in production volumes with a focus on maintaining quality and meeting increasing demand.
  • Potential impact of changing consumer preferences towards organic and sustainable dairy products.
  • Technological advancements in cheese production and aging processes.
  • Possible influence of trade policies and market access post-Brexit.
  • Increased competition from international producers and the role of domestic policies in supporting local cheese production.